Is the Autism ‘epidemic’ real?
Editor’s Note
Conversations around neurodivergence and disability are increasingly more prominent in online spaces and beyond. Room for misinformation grows, along with stigma and resentment toward those who need quite the contrary: support and understanding.
At Be Human, it is our mission to highlight the voices of our beneficiaries — in this case, our neurodivergent community members. You may have heard of the motto: “nothing about us without us” — it emphasizes the need for affected individuals to be present at the decision-making table. Otherwise, how will we create solutions that adequately address their needs?
As part of this effort, we are launching this blog series to create space where the voice of our community is loud and clear, and educate broader allies on matters affecting our community’s health, well-being, and disability. The article below is written by our volunteer, Silvia Almeida, who takes on one of the most common misunderstandings in public debate regarding Autism. In a world where the public often misconstrues disability and misuses medical terminology, it is time to clarify: Is the Autism ‘epidemic’ real? Read below to find out!
“Why does everyone seem to be autistic these days?!”
If you’ve heard someone voice something along these lines, or have wondered about it yourself: the good news is that there’s a clear reason behind it, the bad news is that it’s probably not the one that’s been making the rounds.
There has been more and more discourse surrounding the so-called “epidemic” of autism diagnoses. In April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that as of 2022, 1 in 31 children in the United States were diagnosed autistic.1 Previously, the rates were 1 in 36 in 2020 and even lower were the results reported in 2000, which corresponded to 1 in 150.2 These numbers have led public figures, such as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy JR. to voice that this “epidemic” must be thoroughly researched and the causes for it eliminated.3 Kennedy went as far as to blame this rise on external toxins, stating that “in September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we’ll be able to eliminate those exposures.”.4
Research has proven that autism isn’t caused by external factors.5
Despite this, certain sources keep linking vaccines to autism. In 1998, the Lancet paper published false knowledge regarding the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, and only retracted it when the lie had been spread and there was no way back.6 Andrew Wakefield, the doctor at the centre of this study, was struck off the medical registry after being found guilty of professional misconduct during research for this paper — ethical violations, scientific misrepresentation, deliberate fraud.7 This story would forever leave a footprint on further discussions around autism.
It is important to remember that the statistics on the increasing rates of autism must be taken with a grain of salt; there are no specific, consistent criteria for diagnosing autism, so each diagnosis process differs from one person to another. Especially, when we take into account that certain groups, such as people of color, women, people from lower socio-economic status lack the means to seek a diagnosis and help due to the prevalence of medical racism, sexism, and the high financial costs this process demands.
The existence of an autism “epidemic”: a real thing or not?
Googling the specific definition of epidemic, I found:
(1) The appearance of a particular disease in a large number of people at the same time,
(2) A particular problem that affects many people at the same time.8
If we are to be intentional about the language we use, these definitions alone would negate the existence of an epidemic. First, many from the autism community would disagree with characterizing autism as a “disease”, as most identify with the Neurodiversity approach, which sees autism as a difference, not a disorder. Along the same lines, autism isn’t a “problem”, as phrasing it that way would mean it requires a solution or cure; instead, it is a different way of experiencing and interacting with the world.
Many compare the rise in autism to the history of left-handedness to explain this phenomenon. As left-handedness started being recognized and accepted, people started to openly identify as left-handed, thus, leading to much higher rates.
Willis, an autistic content creator, explains this in an Instagram post:
The number of left-handed people in the world used to be much smaller than today. In schools, left handed pupils had their hands tied behind their backs and were forced to write with their right hand. Left-handed people were even likened to the devil, it was sinful and improper to use your left hand. (...) We all understand that the rise is because society has shifted to accept left handedness. The bias has lifted so left-handed people are allowed to be left-handed.9
In that sense, higher acceptance and recognition explain part of why autism rates have increased over the span of two decades. The other reason — perhaps the most significant one — lies in the expansion of the autism diagnosis. In 1994, the DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders) divided what we label today as Autism into subcategories: PDD, Autistic Disorder, Asperger’s Disorder, Rett’s Disorder, Childhood Disintegrative Disorder, PDD-NOS.10 The following DSM, DSM-5 published in 2013, broadened this diagnosis by recognizing these subcategories as dimensions of one single diagnosis — Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).11 That’s the diagnosis we use today to refer to everyone on the spectrum — from lower support needs to higher ones.
What we have now is a community of individuals coming forth after decades of being left behind and dismissed due to restrictive and prejudicial diagnosis criteria — which to this day, still exclude many individuals who lack support.
Many of us grew up believing autism to be a rare neurological condition, with its many stereotypes — an image imprinted in our minds of a young, white boy with an intense love for trains, need for perfectionism and not to forget, a genius in mathematics. The media enforced these beliefs, so we never thought that someone among ‘us’ could be autistic. However, now, many of us are becoming aware of autism’s actuality. Many autistic women, many burnt out from years of masking (hiding autistic traits), are being diagnosed at a later stage. Adults are realizing that the reason they felt so sick, isolated, and different growing up had a name and a community. Black women are realizing they have been left out of this equation due to racist stereotypes. Gender nonconforming individuals are realizing that the autism diagnosis’ reliance on gender stereotypes is the reason they have been overlooked for so long.
Price writes:
Autistic women, transgender people, and people of color often had their traits
ignored when they were young, or have symptoms of distress interpreted as “manipulative” or “aggressive.” So did Autistic people who grew up in poverty, without access to mental health resources. Gay and gender nonconforming men often didn’t fit the masculine image of Autism well enough to be diagnosed. Older Autistics never had the opportunity to be assessed, because knowledge about the disability was so limited during their childhoods. These systematic exclusions had forced an entire massive, diverse population of disabled people to live in obscurity.12
Several studies have shown how the focus on young boys in the diagnostic criteria has led many individuals to be excluded and denied access to support.13 This explains why we see so many autistic adults realize their neurodivergence only after they hit rock bottom and experience burnout.
Ellie Middleton describes in an interview for BBC that she was on the maximum dose of antidepressants at the age of seventeen and couldn’t be left alone nor leave her home before she was finally diagnosed autistic.14 As part of a team that diagnoses individuals with autism, Sarah Hendrickx describes seeing nearly only female clients now, compared to fifteen years ago.15
My pressing concern is the fact that so much energy and money is used to continue spreading false information on autism, when we could be using it to acknowledge, accept and support those who recognize themselves in the neurodivergent community. I don’t see why autism is being perceived as something that assumedly young people find ‘trendy’ — there is no person I know that uses their diagnosis to be considered ‘cool’; instead, I see young people in dire need of help because they can’t figure out how to stop the vicious cycle of being burnt out, depressed, lonely and anxious. There is no trophy to be won from the time-consuming and stressful process of getting a diagnosis. In fact, it is a difficult and hard journey most wish they didn’t have to go through to seek the little, but critical support they need.
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49(5), 1899–1911. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803- 018-03878-xEggertson L. (2010). Lancet retracts 12-year-old article linking autism to MMR vaccines. CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 182(4), E199–E200. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.109-3179
Haslett, C. (2025, April). RFK Jr. pledges an answer to the 'autism epidemic' by September. ABC News [Newsletter].
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fraud. Indian journal of psychiatry, 53(2), 95–96. https://doi.org/10.4103/0019-5545.82529Rosen, N., Lord, C., & Volkmar, F. R. (2021). The Diagnosis of Autism: From Kanner to
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51(12), 4253–4270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-021-04904-1Shaw, K. A., Williams, S., Patrick, M. E., Valencia-Prado, M., Durkin, M. S., Howerton, E. M., Ladd-Acosta, C. M., Pas, E. T., Bakian, A. V., Bartholomew, P., Nieves-Muñoz, N., Sidwell, K., Alford, A., Bilder, D. A., DiRienzo, M., Fitzgerald, R. T., Furnier, S. M., Hudson, A. E., Pokoski, O. M., . . . Maenner, M. J. (2025). Prevalence and early identification of autism spectrum disorder among children aged 4 and 8 years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 16 sites, United States, 2022. MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 74(2), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.ss7402a1
Tubío-Fungueiriño, M., Cruz, S., Sampaio, A., Carracedo, A., & Fernández-Prieto, M. (2021). Social Camouflaging in Females with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 51(7), 2190–2199.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-020-04695-x
Willis, E. [@_ellawillis]. (2025, February 5). “Autism isn’t a ‘new trend’” [Photograph Carousel].
Instagram.https://www.instagram.com/p/DFsqT6Btku7/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==